Trade / BOP
In this report, we dissect which markets have broken out and which ones have not, and reflect what this entails for our global macro view. Also, we analyze how the S&P 500 has been taking its cues from a change in the inflation trend. Yet, inflation dynamics are complex, and a falling inflation rate does not mean that the inflation menace has been eliminated.
Singapore’s trade data continue to send a pessimistic signal about global manufacturing conditions. The year-over-year contraction in non-oil domestic exports (NODX) deepened to -15.5% y/y in June from -14.8% y/y – marking the ninth consecutive month of…
China’s slowdown confirms BCA’s Geopolitical Strategists’ view that persisting structural challenges would cause China’s economic reopening to disappoint (see The Numbers). In this context, Canada and Mexico are two notable markets that are largely…
BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service uses three simple rules when trading the dollar over a medium-term horizon (12-18 months). What could the macro outlook look like? What is happening to valuations? And where does market sentiment lie? The…
In this short weekly report, we review some of the most common questions clients asked us in the last few weeks.
In a recent report, our Emerging Markets Strategy team recommended an underweight stance for Indonesian equities in EM portfolios. The team is also bearish on the rupiah. An unprecedented trade surplus recently gave Indonesia a rare opportunity to…
Our Emerging Markets Strategy’s Reflation Confirming Indicator has been gapping down, signaling a material rebound in the broad trade-weighted US dollar. The broad trade-weighted US dollar is a counter-cyclical currency, i.e., it sells off when global…
Assuming yesterday’s policy rate hike is a sign that Turkey is finally veering towards orthodox economic policies; should investors rush in?
Industrial metals have been rallying in recent weeks. The London Metals Exchange Metals Index (LMEX) – a weighted index that captures the price movement of primary aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead, copper, and tin – has increased by 6.3% since late-May. Notably,…
Taiwanese export orders continue to signal that global manufacturing conditions remain weak. Orders declined by -17.6% y/y in May – albeit not as bad as the -21.3% y/y drop anticipated. The product breakdown reveals that all major categories experienced…