Our Global Investment strategists offered their initial thoughts on the nascent US trade war with its allies, with a few longer-term takeaways. President Trump’s decision to delay Mexico tariffs on Monday highlights the…
Our Geopolitical Strategy team modeled several of the Trump administration’s most disruptive policies in a simple game theory framework. The Trump administration’s policies have created a complex web of trade and foreign…
Our China Investment Strategy team explored how the costs of higher tariffs might be distributed among foreign suppliers, US importers, and consumers. The inflationary impact of new US tariffs is likely to remain modest unless…
The December Canadian CPI was roughly in line with estimates, with headline inflation ticking down to 1.8% y/y from 1.9% in November. The BoC’s core inflation measures, median and trim, also decreased from 2.6% to 2.4% and 2.5%,…
The January ZEW index for Germany missed estimates, with expectations falling to 10.3 from 15.7 in December. However, the euro area level index ticked up to 18 from 17 a month prior. Measures of current conditions also rose. The…
President Trump’s inaugural speech outlined his second term agenda. The theme was that the US will become “far more exceptional” than it already is. Trump pledged to reverse America’s decline, rebalance the justice system, streamline…
We look at President Trump’s first mandate for lessons on how markets would likely react to different policies. On the fiscal front, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the first pro-cyclical stimulus in decades. Markets pushed…
China’s December trade data was positive, with exports in USD terms rebounding to 10.7% y/y from 6.7% in November, and imports rebounding to 1.0% from -3.9%. Taken at face value, the numbers are positive for both the Chinese and…
Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US…