US

Bears will fold like lawn chairs this summer as traffic returns to Hormuz, allowing markets to overcome seasonal malaise. But we are starting to see how the expansion ends. A macro brew of global central bank tightening due to stickier-than-expected inflation, negative second derivative in AI capex, and surging supply of equities due to Monster IPOs. Expect a blow-off rally until midterms, uncertainty after, calamity in 2027.

Sell America? No. The GeoMacro trade is Buy RoW! Left-tail risks are easing because the US isn’t collapsing. That argues for less enthusiasm for safe havens, not selling US assets. The S&P 500 can perform while remaining underweight the US – it happened in 2025 and will happen again.

Venezuelan crude output is unlikely to alter the global oil market outlook for this year. However, US control of Venezuelan crude is a risk to Canadian oil sands producers and Canadian oil prices. Go long US oil refiners/short Canadian oil producers.