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US Dollar

Euro Area: Can Sentiment Improve Further?
A nascent theme in the latest data is the broad improvement in European sentiment. The February Sentix and ZEW surveys both improved, and flash estimates for European consumer confidence beat estimates, ticking up to -13.6%. Confidence remains low, but…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
UK Price Pressures Remain Elevated
The January UK CPI was slightly hotter than expected. Headline inflation beat estimates, rising to 3.0% y/y from 2.5% in December. Core inflation also jumped but was in line with expectations at 3.7%. Services were strong, albeit slightly lower than expected…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Dollar: Breakout Or Breakdown?
Our Foreign Exchange strategists reviewed the rationale to their short US dollar position as the DXY has been in a trading range with resistance near 110 and support around 100. The widening US budget deficit caps the dollar’s potential. It boosts…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
US Dollar: Breakout Or Breakdown?

In lieu of all the geopolitical and economic news in media, this report looks at where next the dollar is likely to trend in the next one-to-three months. Our view is down, though on a cyclical horizon (six-to-twelve months), we would not be short the dollar, for now. 

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Swiss Core Inflation Surprises To The Upside
While inflation concerns prevail in the US, Swiss inflation hit its lowest level in almost four years. Headline CPI contracted 0.1% m/m in January, leaving the annual inflation rate at 0.4%, near the bottom of the Swiss National Bank’s 0%-to-2% inflation…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Peter Berezin's Thoughts Of The Day: Many Moving Parts

In his latest Thoughts Of The Day, Peter Berezin discusses the different moving parts of the global economy today and the potential impact of Trump's policies.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Understanding Bessenomics And Its Market Implications
Our Emerging Market strategists published a follow-up piece to their Bessenomics note where they assess the new Treasury Secretary plan’s impact on markets. Lower interest rates are central to Bessenomics. The Trump administration is expected to pressure…
Daily Insights by Felix-Antoine Vezina-Poirier
Europe Is Next

Europe is about to become President Trump’s next target. The good news: a US/EU trade war will be short as common ground to achieve a deal exists. The bad news: European assets remain at the mercy of heightened uncertainty. How should investors position themselves in this tricky context?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
EMS
Understanding Bessenomics And Its Market Implications
Please join BCA Research’s, Chief EM & China Strategist Arthur Budaghyan, for a Webcast on Thursday, February 6 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET).
Emerging Markets Strategy Webcast
Understanding Bessenomics And Its Market Implications

This is a follow-up report on Bessenomics – the policy mix that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent plans to pursue. The direction of US and global financial markets depends on the amount of fiscal tightening required to bring down US interest rates. Can the Trump administration cut fiscal spending just enough to bring down US bond yields but not cause a recession?

BCA Special Reports, Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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