Feature The FX Market has a strange way of proving everyone wrong. Currently, we are finding ourselves uncomfortable with our cyclically bullish stance on the dollar as it has become a consensus view. A review of the rationale and…
Highlights Three emerging macro factors bode poorly for Taiwan's growth outlook and asset prices. Despite the worrying economic and geopolitical backdrop, global investors appear complacent. Foreign ownership in Taiwanese stocks…
The GAA DM Equity Country Allocation model is updated as of January 31, 2017. The model has shifted to an overweight position on Switzerland at the expense of a larger reduction in Sweden. Additionally, the model reduced its underweight…
Highlights Duration: Rising political tensions in the U.S. will not offset the cyclical upward momentum in global growth, which is supported by accelerating corporate profits. Bond yields are unlikely to fall much in the near term,…
Highlights Duration: Treasuries are now slightly expensive relative to global growth indicators, and the global economic recovery appears sustainable. Despite lingering concerns about policy uncertainty and bearish bond positioning, we…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy Pricing power has improved across a number of industries, with the exception of technology, a necessary development to sustain an overall profit recovery. The S&P railroads index has surged to the…
Highlights The DXY correction has a bit more to run as G10 economic surprises are likely to roll over. EM-related plays like commodity currencies can rally for a few more months, but the outlook for 2017 is troublesome. China is at…
The Tactical Asset Allocation model can provide investment recommendations which diverge from those outlined in our regular weekly publications. The model has a much shorter investment horizon - namely, one month - and thus attempts to…
Highlights U.S. policy uncertainty has increased again early in the New Year. President Trump's inaugural speech highlighted that he has not tempered his "America First" policy prescription. The Trump/GOP agenda is still…