The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, its survey of business contacts, shows an economy that has seen little growth since early September. The Fed’s contacts confirmed the manufacturing recession reflected in other…
A Donald Trump victory would send bond yields higher during the next few weeks, but yields will fall in 2025 no matter the election outcome.
Dear client, We are launching a new type of Daily Insight titled “Cross-Asset Focus”, where we delve into the dynamics between multiple asset classes, tying them to the current macro and market regimes. The inaugural entry…
Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does…
The bond market priced out a lot of recession risk after this morning’s employment report, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back into the Soft Landing Zone. We assess the data and consider whether we need to change our…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2024.
The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay…
After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession…
China’s Politburo announcement is likely to lead to a repricing of China’s growth in the near-term. Read how investors can hedge against this potent threat to our defensive investment stance.
