Yield Curve
For our last publication of the year, we explore five key themes that will dominate the European macro landscape and markets next year. While the start of 2025 will be challenging for European assets, the latter part will offer some much-needed relief.
This is the time of the year when strategists are busy sending out their annual outlooks. Here on the Global Investment Strategy team, we decided to go one step further. Rather than pontificating about what could happen in 2025, we decided to harness the power of the multiverse to tell you what did happen (in at least one highly representative timeline).
Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Tuesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets.
And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2025. We will be back in the first week of January with our MacroQuant Model Update.
We offer 5 key investment views for US fixed income markets in 2025.
Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that Europe’s time to shine will soon come back.
Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that Europe’s time to shine will soon come back.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2024.
This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a few trade ideas that arise from the divergences in signals amongst G10 countries.
The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump’s agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, we are raising our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75%.
Our thoughts on the bond market’s reaction to the election and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
