Insights

Investors have given up on European assets, which now suffer exceptional discounts to US ones. However, tighter US fiscal policy, the end of Europe’s austerity and deleveraging, the LNG Tsunami about to hit European shores, and the global capex fueled by the Impossible Geopolitical Trinity mean that...

The post-COVID recovery has been one of excesses. Government deficits have ballooned, tight labor markets have led to a windfall of consumer spending, and equity valuations have soared on the back of lofty growth expectations. But these excesses will no longer be sustainable in 2025. Our theme for n...

Today, we are unveiling an update to our MacroQuant model. The latest version of the MacroQuant model sees downside risk to stocks going into December and recommends increasing duration exposure in global fixed-income portfolios....

Today, we are unveiling an update to our MacroQuant model. The latest version of the MacroQuant model sees downside risk to stocks going into December and recommends increasing duration exposure in global fixed-income portfolios....

On October 15, speaking at the Economic Club of Chicago, Donald Trump called tariffs “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” On Monday, he put those words into action by threatening to slap a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Coll...

The earnings season was good but failed to assuage investor concerns that earnings growth remains concentrated. Tepid earnings and sales beats were somewhat concerning. However, based on company commentaries, the US economy remains sound. While challenges remain, such as slowing global growth, a str...

This week we conduct a thorough audit of our open positions by revisiting the original basis and subsequent performance of all 13 cyclical recommendations. Following the review, we recommend closing 6 of the 13 positions....

President Trump’s victory has injected a dose of uncertainty into the outlook for commodity markets. Most notably, the new administration’s energy policies are likely to be part of the early agenda. Changes in US domestic and foreign policies will also impact the outlooks for gold and industrial met...

Corporate bond spreads have tightened significantly during the past month, even as the range of economic outcomes consistent with stable credit spreads narrows....