Insights

Please join Chief US Investment Strategist & Bank Credit Analyst co-author, Doug Peta for a Webcast.

 Wednesday, June 10

10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

 Earnings versus everything else has been an apt description for the macro backdrop during the conflict with Iran. Earnings growth has been red hot, but the Middle East was a mess, oil and other energy-related costs soared, bond yields surged and money markets priced in a central bank U-turn from cuts to hikes. Earnings have carried the day to this point, and we think the equity market has been right to follow them.

 Doug will discuss the events that could shift the narrative while keeping tabs on the following key drivers:

• The labor market
• Consumption
• Inflation
• Monetary policy
• AI investment
• Portfolio positioning over 3- and 12-month timeframes

Since 2018, we’ve published what we call “The Most Important of All Unimportant Forecasts” – applying the same macro framework we use for markets and the global economy to predict the World Cup. Now, what started as a one-off idea has become a tradition.

We hosted a webcast to walk through the making of the report – how the model has evolved, how we combine quantitative analysis with macro and narrative insights, and why football turns out to be a surprisingly good lens for top-down thinking.

We also shared our final tournament prediction – and attendees will hear it first.

What we covered:
•How the report started – and how it’s improved each cycle
•The blend of data, narrative, and macro behind the model
•Why football lends itself to a top-down framework
•Our final 2026 World Cup call (revealed live)

Please join Chief EM/China Strategist, Arthur Budaghyan for a Webcast.

Thursday, May 28
10:30 AM EDT | 3:30 PM BST | 4:30 PM CEST

Arthur will discuss:

• The Fed: Damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t
• Bessenomics upended?
• Get Out of the Dollar (G.O.D.) Thesis: paused, not reversed
• Unprecedented economic and market divergences
• Lessons from the 2000 tech bubble peak
• EM equities: A one-horse race
• Opportunities in EM fixed income and equities

In this webcast Ryan discussed the outlook for US inflation and consider whether rising consumer prices will force the Fed to hike rates in the coming months. The Webcast addressed the following questions:

• Will the oil price shock have only a temporary impact on US inflation, or will it send consumer prices sustainably higher?
• Is the US labor market heating up or cooling off?
• What economic scenarios would push the Fed toward rate hikes or rate cuts?
• Which US fixed income sectors stand to profit from an extended period of on-hold Fed policy?

BCA Chief Strategists, Mathieu Savary, Roukaya Ibrahim, and Noah Weisberger looked at the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the implications for global financial markets.

Topics discussed:

• The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and energy markets are tightening again. Is the shock being underpriced?
• What would a sustained disruption mean for the global growth–inflation trade-off? Is stagflation risk creeping back?
• Within commodities, where is the real asymmetry now? What’s crowded, and what still offers upside?
• Can strategic reserve releases truly cap the rally, or do they just delay the adjustment?
• Equities have remained resilient. Are markets looking through the shock, or misreading it?
• Where is the tipping point: how much further can oil rise before equities reprice meaningfully?
• If crude continues higher, which sectors and factors offer the most convex exposure, not just beta?
• If flows normalize and oil rolls over, where does leadership rotate, and how quickly?

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 2

Noah and Jason discussed:

• What earnings, revisions and expectations are telling us now
• The latest read on Tech revenues, capex, and demand for AI
• Why we are long Software
• The outlook for margins: Macro headwinds vs. AI
• Key feedback and pushback from 32 client meetings & 34 Lunch and Dinner attendees:
  • The impact of AI IPOs, consumer spending trends, Utilities underweight

Macro headlines may have shifted attention away from Private Markets, but the underlying risks remain. We revisit the Private Credit-Software cracks we flagged early and explain why, despite the noise, the structural story is just getting started.

• How did we get here?
• Is Software making or breaking Private Credit's diversification case?
• Systemic risk or a normal credit cycle?
• How are our 2024 calls on Distressed versus Buyouts playing out?
• Where are the most overlooked opportunities across Private (and Public) Markets right now? 

US Equity Strategy Webcast Series: Noah Holds Barred - Episode 1

Noah and Jason discussed:

• The foundations of our constructive outlook and 7700 year-end S&P 500 target
• The capex outlook and its implications
• Do valuations represent a meaningful constraint?
• Tensions and opportunities between market pricing and the state of the cycle
• What a US recession could mean for equities
• Middle East tensions: potential paths to resolution and market implications
• Sector positioning for 2026