Insights

Trump's presidential re-election makes US tariff rate hikes on Chinese exports an imminent threat. Beijing has made extensive efforts to derisk the domestic economy and diversify trade away from the US. However, China is no better positioned today than it was in 2018 to withstand the impact of ...

We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI release, concluding that TIPS breakeven inflation rates have room to fall. ...

The threat of import tariffs and US growth outperformance versus the rest of the world will continue supporting the US dollar rally over the near term. Nevertheless, the Trump administration’s medium- to long-term goal will be a US dollar devaluation to boost the country’s manufacturing competitiven...

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2024. ...

The month of November has brought us S&P 6,000! President Trump has won a “Red Sweep” (as we expected all year) and has ushered in a regime change in America. For now, we are open to chasing momentum. However, the biggest risk to the market are bond yields, which should rise as investors start t...

This week, we update our Central Bank Monitors (CBMs), that help us calibrate how monetary policy should be adjusted in developed-market economies. Our conclusion is that while overall, easier monetary settings are required, there a few trade ideas that arise from the divergences in signals amongst ...

Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in the House of Representatives. Foreign policy will become more unila...

Trump’s resounding victory brings a popular mandate that ensures deregulation and higher trade tariffs. Higher budget deficit and immigration reform are also in the cards as the Republicans look like they may squeak a thin margin in the House of Representatives. Foreign policy will become more unila...

The market is celebrating the prospect of deregulation, lower taxes, and Fed rate cuts, for now ignoring the dangers of wider budget deficits, inflationary pressures, and trade wars. The rally can continue into the year-end and reduced uncertainty, seasonality, and positive momentum will benefit rec...

Since the end of 2021, EPS for the S&P 500 Information Technology sector has grown by 29%. In contrast, free cash flow-per-share has grown by only 11%. ...