Insights

ADP's estimate of private payrolls rose by 233K on a seasonally adjusted basis in October, blowing away the consensus estimate of 111K. ...

We prefer Non-Core Infrastructure and Venture Capital over Buyouts and Multi-Strategy Hedge Funds. We are now overweight Core/+ Real Estate. Investors need to recheck the bank regulation tailwind for their long-term assumptions on Private Credit. ...

A Trump victory offers a buying opportunity for bonds; a Harris victory offers a selling opportunity for bonds. We explain why. ...

Germany’s economy has lagged that of the rest of Europe for nearly 10 years. So have German stocks. Investors are extrapolating these trends to bet on the country’s deindustrialization. Could Germany manage to beat dismal expectations?...

The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar. ...

Back in 2016, there was widespread concern that if Donald Trump became president, he would start a trade war. As it turned out, Trump did become president and he did start a trade war, but the US economy continued growing anyway. In a study published in August 2019, the Congressional Budget Office c...

Job openings missed expectations at 7.44 million in September, a mild slowdown from August. The details of the JOLTS report were also negative, except for hirings which continue their June rebound. Meanwhile, consumer confidence for October data beat expectations. The Conference Board’s labor differ...

Gen Z is coming of age and, as one of the largest cohorts in the US with significant buying power, wields increasing influence over consumer trends. The Gen Z investment thesis captures a host of nascent themes that reflect new generational preferences and spending patterns, such as fintech and onli...

Elevated US equities valuations and their impact on returns are a hot topic right now. Valuations are not a tactical or cyclical timing tool, but they help predict long-term returns. Our Global Asset Allocation Strategy team publishes their multi-asset 10-to-15 years return assumptions annually, and...

It is premature to bet on a copper demand acceleration over the coming months. Rather, copper prices are vulnerable to the downside. We believe that a better opportunity to turn bullish on copper prices and copper mining stocks will emerge in the coming six-to-nine months. ...