Insights

Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add som...

The Chinese government had no choice but to act this week. Housing starts are down 65% from their peak. ...

The adrenaline from the recent policy stimulus might be sufficient to produce a window of outperformance for Chinese equities and China-plays in financial markets. However, this adrenaline will not extend to China's real economy. Net-net, we are upgrading the allocation to EM in a global equity port...

The adrenaline from the recent policy stimulus might be sufficient to produce a window of outperformance for Chinese equities and China-plays in financial markets. However, this adrenaline will not extend to China's real economy. Net-net, we are upgrading the allocation to EM in a global equity...

In Section I, we provide an update of our views following the September FOMC meeting and recent announcements from Chinese policymakers. The Fed’s decision this month has modestly increased the odds of a temporary soft-landing outcome. Still, recession remains our base case scenario, and forceful ea...

China’s Politburo announcement is likely to lead to a repricing of China’s growth in the near-term. Read how investors can hedge against this potent threat to our defensive investment stance. ...

In my view, the revisions resolve a big puzzle that has developed over the past two years, which is how employment growth could have been so strong while personal income growth was so weak. Well, as it turns out, income growth was quite strong too. ...

Chinese stimulus measures announced on September 24 found few structural optimists in the global macro community, us at BCA Research included. This is for good reason. China is mired in secular stagnation that cannot be unstuck by monetary policy alone. ...