Insights

In this report, we argue that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to hike interest rates this week, but the relative trajectory of bond yields in Japan is higher. This warrants an underweight position in JGBs and a leveraged bet on a higher yen. The positioning for equity investors is murkier, as progress...

We update our bond views following today’s 50 bps rate cut. ...

Initial rate cuts are not statistically significant for Equity Analyzer’s factors, though we still note Value and Safety as top performers. Sectors are the same. Defensives spike but lose traction as Cyclicals come into favor later. If a hard landing materializes as we expect, equities will move low...

According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, seven surprises with non-negligible odds could tip the scale in favor of Republicans for the White House by November 5. One of them is a war between Israel and Iran.Iran is still highly likely to retaliate against Israel. The Biden administr...

The Vietnamese economy is growing at a strong 7%. Why, then, are Vietnamese stocks struggling? Should investors expect a revival soon? ...

This Special Report examines the post-pandemic evolution of consumption growth, relative equity sector and subindustry performance and recent commentary from consumer-facing companies to assess the likelihood that softer spending among lower-income households will spread to middle- and upper-income ...

Investors should de-risk tactically in expectation of shocks and surprises ahead of the US election and an uncertain aftermath. Democratic victory with a gridlocked Congress is our base case but would bring minor tax hikes and nuclear brinksmanship with Russia. A Republican single-party sweep offers...

Conservative investors usually shy away from very volatile assets. But is this the right approach? By comparing Bitcoin with a hypothetical asset called “Boringcoin” we show that, all else being equal, high volatility assets are preferable as diversifiers due to better capital efficiency. Asset allo...

A bearish chill has engulfed oil markets. Earlier this week, Brent dropped to a near three-year low, falling below the trading range that had prevailed over the prior 18 months. In this Strategy Insight we detail why we do not believe that the worst has passed for oil markets. Rather, prices are lik...

The US suffers from enough imbalances to produce a mild recession. Unfortunately, such a recession could lead to a significant bear market in stocks, just as it did during the very mild 2001 recession. ...