Insights

Waging trade wars in a global multipolar order is folly. The US trade war against China has been an utter disaster for Washington, DC. None of its goals have been accomplished, whereas Beijing is making significant inroads into new markets. Somewhat heretically, we suggest that American policymakers...

We remain concerned that the risk-reward for equities is limited above our end-of-the-year target of 5,500 for the S&P 500. There is seasonality to consider, as well as positioning and sentiment. As such, we are not necessarily bearish because a recession is certain. But, rather, that the upside...

Q2 Earnings season has been strong, with sales and earnings growth accelerating and broadening across sectors. However, companies' results and commentaries are stoking some concerns. GAI monetization will take longer than most investors expect. Companies are also reporting that lower- and middl...

The ongoing rally in ASEAN currencies will fizzle sooner rather than later as they are not supported by fundamentals. The ringgit and the baht, however, will fare better than the peso and the rupiah during the coming global risk-off period. This report explains why. ...

Even after the Fed cuts rates, policy will remain restrictive for some time. Moreover, in history, stocks have tended to fall around the first rate cut. We remain cautious on the outlook for the economy and risk assets. ...

Our annual end-of-summer chartbook report traces the labor market deterioration that led us to downgrade equities at the beginning of August. It also highlights the soft-landing expectations that the credit and equity markets are discounting. We like the risk-reward profile of our newly defensive st...

Turn negative on European credit. At current levels, spreads do not compensate for the risk of a recession materializing later this year or in early 2025....

Democrats will not win a full sweep and implement drastic new tax hikes. However, our quant model still favors them to win the White House and just upgraded their odds. While we expect equity volatility around the election, investors do not need to worry about corporate tax hikes. ...

MacroQuant continues to recommend underweighting equities and overweighting bonds. This is consistent with the Global Investment Strategy Team's decision to downgrade global equities to underweight in late June....

MacroQuant continues to recommend underweighting equities and overweighting bonds. This is consistent with the Global Investment Strategy Team's decision to downgrade global equities to underweight in late June. ...