Insights

We comment on whether Treasury market valuation is sufficiently attractive to get long bonds and consider some of the common arguments for why yields may yet make new highs. ...

The uranium market is at a crossroads of economics and geopolitics. This report presents an overview of supply and demand factors that have led to the formation of the present supply deficit....

In a guest research report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist, revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years. ...

The three major oil forecasters – IEA, EIA, and OPEC – are forecasting oil demand growth until 2025 to be broadly in line with its range over the past four decades. On a cyclical horizon, we give high odds that a recession will begin within the coming 6-12 months, disappointing these oil demand fore...

In a guest research report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist, revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years. ...

In Section I, we argue that global investors have been lulled into a false sense of security concerning the resiliency of the US economy. Tight monetary policy means that something must change for a recession to be avoided, and developed market rates cuts will likely be too modest and come too late ...

In a guest research report, Martin Barnes, BCA’s former Chief Economist, revisits the idea of the Debt Supercycle and discusses how its true end may emerge in response to a fiscal crisis in the US over the coming few years. ...

Favor defensive sectors, low-beta assets, and long-duration bonds until the election uncertainty is lifted one way or another over the next five months. ...

The large buildup in Chinese households’ savings deposits is unlikely to fuel consumption. Poor outlooks on labor market conditions, income, and households’ unwillingness to borrow will hinder consumption through the rest of 2024. ...

Historically, the biggest driver of the small cap premium was “migration” i.e., a subset of small stocks earning extreme positive returns as they become large stocks. However, migration rates between small and large stocks have declined in the US. Small companies that would have grown to become succ...