Insights

Today we are sending you the white paper introducing our next-generation MacroQuant 2.0 model. Two years in the making, this model distills everything I have learned about economics and financial markets over the past 30 years into simple buy and sell signals. ...

Today we are sending you the white paper introducing our next-generation MacroQuant 2.0 model. Two years in the making, this model distills everything I have learned about economics and financial markets over the past 30 years into simple buy and sell signals. ...

A recent slew of macroeconomic data has reassured us that the runway to a recession is longer than many thought. However, that positive realization comes with two caveats. First, the Fed pivot is not imminent, and the magnitude of rate cuts may disappoint. Second, the recession has been delayed but ...

Is the rebound in European PMIs enough to boost the appeal of European risk assets? ...

We present the performance review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio for 2023. We also discuss the outlook for 2024 performance based on our Key Views for the year. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from a year where the global backdrop will be one of weak growth and furth...

Low inflation argues for the Fed to move relatively quickly toward rate cuts. Continued above-trend GDP growth poses a risk to this view, but leading indicators point to slower growth in the coming quarters. ...

Commodity volatility will continue its rising trend since 2014. The US is on the brink of a major election, the outcome of which could reduce its willingness to engage with the outside world. So, states seeking to carve out their own spheres of influence are incentivized to raise the economic costs ...

We look at the implications for FX from the slew of central bank meetings this week. ...

In Section I, we discuss the important flaws in the market’s “Goldilocks” economic narrative. Forward-looking measures of labor demand are heralding an eventual rise in the unemployment rate, and it is unlikely that this will occur in a benign fashion. This underscores that the US economy remains on...