Insights

Investors should reduce risk, increase allocation to safe havens, and brace for oil price volatility and supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East over the next zero-to-12 months....

In financial systems, cracks typically begin on the periphery and then expand to the center. Hence, the ruptures on the fringes often act as an early warning. These fissures tend to widen and spread to the core, causing a breakdown in the S&P 500. Investors should consider buying US Treasurys ag...

Economic fragmentation will accelerate in the wake of the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars. China’s fis-cal support for its economy; a still-strong US economy, and the preparation for a wider war in the Middle East involving Iran will elevate volatility and bias oil prices upward. We remain lon...

MacroQuant is holding a near neutral positioning with a slight tilt towards equities and bonds and away from cash....

Our reaction to today’s FOMC meeting and the Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement. ...

The fundamental component of long-term inflation expectations has climbed to its highest level since 2008 in both the US and the euro area. This means that both the Fed and the ECB will need to engineer inflation to undershoot 2 percent for an extended period if they are to maintain their 2 percent ...

We maintain our view that China’s economic growth in the coming months will remain lackluster. Beijing's recent measures to provide additional financing may help to bridge the gap in government spending in the rest of 2023 and into 2024, but the impact on growth will be very limited. ...

High interest rates will eventually cause growth to slow. Signs of stress are already starting to show. Stay cautiously positioned. ...

What will the next manufacturing cycle look like in Europe and how will risk assets perform? Lessons from the recent past. ...

Stronger US growth elicits a response from the House Republicans. But a government shutdown is not devastating to the economy. What is more devastating would be a crisis in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. Stay long US defense, energy, and large caps stocks. ...