Insights

The recent bear-steepening of the US Treasury curve has been driven by the combination of stronger-than-expected economic growth and stable Fed rate expectations. Historically, such periods do not last very long, and we see the current bear-steepening episode ending soon. We also highlight an opport...

Q3-2023 is expected to mark the end of the earnings recession for the past three quarters, opening the door to positive earnings growth. Whether that would be sustainable or will sputter once the recession settles in as expected in 2024 remains to be seen. However, much of earnings growth is already...

More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty. ...

Yields remain the force dominating the evolution of markets. A peak in yields would help European assets rebound, but the war in the Middle East could push higher energy prices, with negative consequences for Europe. ...

Investors underestimate the likelihood of the war in Israel spilling outside of Gaza, and engulfing wider swaths of the Middle East, endangering energy supplies. Stay overweight Energy and Aerospace & Defense. ...

Numerous breakdowns are occurring in global equities outside the US large cap. All these market moves point to a global economy that cannot handle high borrowing costs. Unless EM share prices find a bottom in absolute and relative terms before year-end, they will have experienced a structural breakd...

This week's Insight gauges the potential of a dollar breakout or breakdown and suggests a few trade ideas. ...

The Israeli-Arab crisis is more likely to expand and cause oil disruptions than market consensus holds. Close long dollar trades and go long energy and defense stocks relative to cyclicals....

US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy succumbs to recession. Investors should increasingly favor bonds ove...

Comments on recent Fedspeak, bond market moves and this morning’s CPI report. ...