Insights

While we are sympathetic to the view that the Fed could temporarily achieve a soft landing, we are skeptical that it could stick that landing for very long. Stocks could strengthen into year-end, with small caps potentially leading the charge. But the rally will fizzle out next year as the global ec...

In this report, we highlight why there are upside risks to Brent crude oil and copper prices going into 2024, with the production side expected to drive deficits in these markets. To take advantage of a potential rally, we suggest basket plays for hedging this outcome. ...

The implications of this morning’s CPI report for Fed policy, Treasuries and TIPS. ...

This Special Report is a timely reprise of a speech that I gave at the London School of Economics on our understanding and misunderstanding of generative AI. In neurological terms, generative AI has a ‘super-neocortex’ which means that it can thrash humans in abstract thinking, or IQ. But crucially,...

In this report, we review our European fixed income strategy recommendations ahead of tomorrow’s critical ECB meeting ...

While Chinese stocks have low valuations and are oversold, their attractiveness is dampened by uncertainties in the magnitude of stimulus and the dismal outlook for corporate profits in the next six to nine months. ...

Real wages are set to rise in CE3 economies with implications for their asset markets and currencies. Of the three, Polish assets and the zloty are the most vulnerable. ...

Stocks perform worse in presidential election years than average years, especially in the first half of the year, and especially if the ruling party ends up falling from power. Investors should take risk off the table until the unemployment rate peaks. ...

The euro has weakened sharply since mid-July as US growth continues to outperform that of the Eurozone. Is a new bear market afoot for the common currency? ...

Magnificent Seven leadership is neither a new nor an unnatural phenomenon. There is no shortage of reasons why equities might have already made a top, but investors should not be tricked into thinking that the rally was somehow specious. ...