Insights

MacroQuant is overweight equities, underweight bonds, and neutral cash....

US bond investment takeaways from this week’s PCE and employment releases. ...

In this report, we explore what a new BRICS+ union means for the dollar over the next 6-to-9 months. ...

A global recession continues to be likely over the next 12 months. The impact of tighter monetary policy is slowly being felt. Government bonds look increasingly attractive as a safe haven. ...

In Part 2 of this series, we prescribe the treatment needed to produce a recovery for the ailing Chinese economy. Authorities will only panic and unleash “irrigation-style” stimulus if the unemployment rate rises sharply, or a financial crisis unravels in onshore markets. This is not yet the case. ...

In Section I, we respond to the ongoing challenge to our view that the US economy is on a recessionary path. The available evidence overwhelmingly supports the notion that US monetary policy is tight, which argues against the “no landing” economic scenario. It also underscores that the recessionary ...

Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024. ...

The Fed and ECB talked a good game as they redoubled their commitments to returning core inflation to 2% p.a. at Jackson Hole. However, their outmoded inflation-fighting playbooks do not address supply tightness in commodity and energy markets, which keeps inflation risk elevated. The proposed exp...

We comment on Jay Powell’s Jackson Hole speech and recommend shifting to a barbelled allocation along the Treasury curve. ...