Insights

In part 2 of this series, we discuss mainstream EM equity valuations and present the results of our cross-country analysis. The goal is to identify overweights and underweights within an EM equity portfolio. ...

At 19x forward earnings, the S&P 500 still appears expensive which heralds lower returns over the months ahead. Technicals are marginally more attractive now, with 56% percent of the industries trading above their 200-day moving average. However, historically, the market has rarely bottomed out ...

Most diagnoses of China’s liquidity trap miss the point that policies arising from these theories were developed for market-based economies with governments accountable to their electorates, not autocracies pursuing autarky. As the CCP widens and deepens mass-mobilization campaigns, the echo of the ...

While it may be tempting to bottom fish, we advise that investors maintain a cautious stance on Argentinian sovereign credit. Even though the election of a right-wing candidate in the coming months may boost investor sentiment, the country still faces major headwinds: more currency devaluation, and ...

Deflation prevails in China’s economy. Marginal interest rate cuts will be insufficient to boost growth as the economy is experiencing debt deflation and might be entering a liquidity trap. There will likely be more economic disappointments in the coming months. Chinese stocks will continue to sell ...

Investors should prepare for an equity market pullback this fall, prefer Treasuries over stocks, and US defensives over cyclicals. A pullback could also morph into another bear market given that monetary policy is tight, policy uncertainty will spike, global growth is slowing, and geopolitical risks...

Indian stocks have gone up this year even as the broader EM markets have been falling. How long can Indian markets continue to rise? ...

The next six-to-nine months hold a crucial test of whether the equity market will ratify the soft landing and the Biden administration or not. If so, then markets will rally on policy continuity and likely gridlock. If not, then markets will struggle until the election is over and again in 2025-26. ...

European yields are testing the upper end of their recent trading range. Is the European economic outlook consistent with an imminent breakout? ...

While the bearish bond trade currently has a lot of momentum, we continue to think that Treasury yields are close to a cyclical peak and will be lower on a 6-12 month horizon. ...