Insights

August offers an opportunity to review our key views. European growth is turning the corner and inflation is improving, but does it guarantee an imminent breakout in European stocks? ...

Some thoughts on this week’s bear-steepening of the Treasury curve and this morning’s employment report. ...

Value, Size, and Quality all outperformed in July. Both the USHQ Large Cap and Small-to-Mid cap portfolios performed broadly inline with their benchmarks. We also break down the Q2 2023 earnings releases so far, where banks and Financials surprised to the upside. ...

China’s extremely high savings rate is the real culprit behind its current economic woes. The authorities have been slow to stimulate the economy, and the risks of “Japanification” have increased. For now, the fact that China is exporting deflation is not such a bad thing. However, if global recessi...

In this insight, we assess the prospect of the Swiss franc over the next six months. ...

The Global Equity Score falls slightly but remains neutral, ending its 7-month up-trend. We use this possible inflection point signal to look into how the ACWI behaves over different forward return horizons based on the level and change in the Global Equity Score. We find the current score dynamics ...

The odds of Russia cutting oil output will rise going into 4Q23, as Ukraine’s endgame increases pressure on it, and it actively seeks to undermine President Biden’s re-election. We reckon a 2mm b/d cut would push Brent above $140/bbl by December 2024. This would push inflation and inflation expectat...

The Supreme Court is a generator of certainty rather than uncertainty for US markets. In the event of a constitutional crisis, a court intervention will likely reduce volatility....

Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market. ...

MacroQuant is overweight equities and cash and underweight bonds....