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Currencies

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Global Risks Rebounding (GeoRisk Update)

While 2024 will see various election risks, global geopolitical uncertainty is driven by the US election and its struggle with Russia, China, and Iran. The stock market can manage local domestic political risk. But it will correct upon a major outbreak of geopolitical uncertainty.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Does The Japanese Equity Rally Have Legs?
Japanese equities have outperformed their global peers since September 2022 in common currency terms. Over this period, the Nikkei 225 and the TOPIX posted gains of close to 50%. A weak yen has boosted Japanese multinationals’ foreign revenues and prompted…
Daily Insights
What's Weighing On The Copper-To-Gold Ratio?
The Global Manufacturing PMI clocked in at 50 in January – exactly on the boom-bust line. The index has been on a general uptrend since mid-2023 with the January figure marking the first non-contractionary reading since August 2022. The headline index…
Daily Insights
The NOK And Energy Security
Energy security is a focus of many governments, especially since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. One producer that is benefitting from diversification away from Russian oil and gas is Norway. This is buffeting the trade account and will provide…
Daily Insights
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How Low Can CHF Fall?

In this Insight, we speculate on the outlook for the CHF.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
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Decoupling And A Litmus Test

Over the next six months, the deterioration in non-US growth will occur earlier and be more pronounced than in the US. This expectation reinforces our confidence to bet on the strength of the US dollar. As usual, the flip side of the US dollar strength will be weakness in EM risk assets.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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How Love Stories End: US Tech And Chinese Housing

Our Valentine’s Day report is about two love stories: the infatuation with US tech and China’s infatuation with housing. We describe how these love stories will end, and why Europe could be the winner.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
SNB: No Longer A Tailwind For CHF
The Swiss franc is among the worst performing major currencies so far this year. This marks a reversal following its stellar performance last year. The Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) support for the domestic currency is behind last year’s strength.…
Daily Insights
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China Geopolitical Outlook 2024
Special Report

China will continue to suffer from a “triple crisis”. Though there could be a tactical bounce, cyclically we still recommend underweighting Chinese equities.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
Can The US Dollar Rally When The Fed Cuts Rates?
Our Emerging Markets team believes that the risk-reward profile of the US dollar remains very attractive. First, if US growth stays robust, US interest rate expectations will rise because rate cuts priced in will not be realized. Rising interest rates will…
Daily Insights

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