Commodity Markets & Energy Outlook
Connect supply, demand, geopolitics, inflation, and the macro cycle to opportunities and risks across commodity and energy markets.
“The Biggest Oil Deal In World History” Is A Paper Tiger
President Trump referred to the US-Venezuela agreement as the “biggest oil deal in world history.” However, oil production growth constraints limit its near-term impact on global crude markets. Instea…
Why The Crack Spread's Next Move Is Down
The wide crack spread reflects a bifurcated oil market. The severity of the crude oil disruption has recently softened, while the US-Iran and Ukraine-Russia conflicts have created a perfect storm for…
Petrochemicals: A Chinese Pivot To Coal
The Hormuz crisis has exposed a structural vulnerability in China's petrochemical value chain. Going forward, Beijing will look to build greater supply security by scaling up coal-to-olefins capacity…
FICC Third Quarter Strategy Outlook: Goldilocks
Goldilocks, with fault lines underneath. Our first joint FICC outlook lays out where growth, inflation, and policy are headed this quarter and where the calm could crack.
China’s Advantage In The Electricity Wars (But Don’t Count Out The US Yet!)
China holds a structural advantage in this "Age of Electricity" by operating the world's largest electricity system. However, this advantage has inherent limits, and the US remains competitive despite…
Are You Ready For A “Super El Niño?”
The risk of a “super El Niño” represents a meaningful threat to agricultural markets. Wheat, cocoa, and palm oil appear particularly vulnerable to El Niño-related supply disruptions. A rise in food pr…
