Economic Growth
The December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index beat expectations, jumping to 105.1 from 101.7 in November. Most index subcomponents increased, led by measure of expectations, notably for the state of the economy and real sales. After jumping 39 percentage…
Our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) team believes the US economy is not as strong as commonly believed, and that equity valuations offer little buffer given the risk of incoming macro shocks. The US economy is more fragile than it appears, with risks…
The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates on Friday, driven by a cooling of consumer expectations. Worryingly, both the 1-year and 5-to-10 year inflation expectations ticked up to 3.3% from 2.8% and 3.0%,…
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
In this week’s report, we present our key takeaways from China's two notable adjustments recently implemented: an upward revision to its 2023 GDP and the reduction of the USD weighting in the RMB Exchange Rate Index.
November factory orders in Germany widely missed estimates, falling by 5.4% m/m, worsening the 1.5% October decline. Excluding major orders, which often distort the overall picture, core new orders fell 1.7% y/y after growing 5.7% in October. The European…
Our GeoMacro strategists published their Alpha Report, outlining their view that President Trump will have to pare back his fiscal ambitions to avoid a bond market riot. The long end of the US bond market continues to sell off, reinforcing our…
Job openings once again beat expectations in November, increasing to 8.1m from 7.8m in October. However, hires and quits decreased and layoffs increased. The gap between quits and layoffs, a leading indicator of labor market demand, ticked down. The jobs gap,…
December euro area inflation met expectations, with headline HICP printing at 2.4% y/y from 2.2% in November, and core steady at 2.7%, above the ECB’s target. Services inflation remains elevated at 4.0% y/y, up from 3.9% a month prior. While services…
The December ISM Services PMI beat estimates, increasing to 54.1 from 52.1 in November. All subcomponents increased except for employment, which nonetheless remains in expansion. The prices paid component was especially strong, increasing to 64.4 from…