Economy

The Reserve Bank of Australia was the first among major DM economies to slow its pace of rate hikes. Even though both the inflation and labor market backdrops supported a 50bp rate hike at its most recent policy meeting, the RBA surprised the consensus by…

3 years ago

Essentials

ZEW Suggests Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Has Not Yet Bottomed

The ZEW survey of investor sentiment is signaling that economic conditions in the Eurozone are likely to deteriorate further. The spread between the expectations and current conditions components typically leads trends in the Euro Area manufacturing PMI. It…

3 years ago

Essentials

Canadian Businesses Are Feeling The Impact Of Tighter Policy

The Bank of Canada’s Q3 Business Outlook Survey reveals that weaker sales growth expectations are dampening confidence among Canadian businesses. The BOS indicator dropped from 4.87 in Q2 to 1.69 in Q3 – the weakest level since Q1 2021. Notably, the survey…

3 years ago

GeoMacro

How To Read Xi's 20th Party Congress Speech

Special Report

Favor US and Southeast Asian stocks over global stocks. Stay underweight China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

3 years ago

China

FICC

The Case For A Pause

The Fed’s tone has taken a decidedly dovish turn during the past week and, despite September’s hot CPI print, there is mounting evidence that a period of disinflation is coming. This makes the case for a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle in Q1 or Q2 of next year.

3 years ago

Bonds

Essentials

Empire State Manufacturing Deteriorates Further In October

The Empire State Manufacturing index decreased by 7.6 points to -9.1 in October, below expectations of a milder decline. The diffusion index has been in negative territory for five out of the past six months. Notably, shipments fell 19.9 points to -0.3, new…

3 years ago

Essentials

Atlanta Fed Tracker Signals Easing Wage Pressure

The latest reading from the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker suggests that inflationary pressures in the US economy may be starting to ease. Median wage growth decelerated to 6.3% in September on a three-month moving average basis, following three…

3 years ago

Essentials

Singapore Is Sending A Warning About Global Demand

The growth rate of Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports slowed to a 3.1% annual rate in September. While it is a noisy series, the latest deterioration is consistent with the weakening trend since late 2021. In particular, Singapore’s exports of electronic…

3 years ago

Essentials

EUR/USD Has Decoupled From Interest Rate Differentials

For most of last year and the first half of this year, the market consensus was that the Fed would be among the most hawkish major global central banks. As such, interest rate differentials provided a tailwind for the US dollar over this period. Indeed,…

3 years ago

Equities

Banks: Rising Rates Are A Double-Edged Sword

Banks face many challenges from a slower economy and tighter financial conditions, which offset benefits from rising rates and higher net interest income. It is likely that things will get worse, a sentiment supported by many banking executives. However, negative expectations have already been priced in. We will maintain our overweight for now but will fade this position after a bounce in the next bear market rally. The long-term outlook is negative. We prefer Regional Banks to Diversified Banks.

3 years ago

US Equities

Economy

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