China
Chinese stock prices are converging with economic growth after a 2025 rally. While the country can endure a short-term oil price shock, it remains susceptible to extended supply disruptions and a global slowdown.
This report unpacks this year’s uneventful NPC, reading the tea leaves of key messages and offering insights on the impact of rising oil prices on China.
China's slowdown coincides with at least a minor global oil shock – a combination we have long feared.
This report examines the implications for Chinese exports and global trade in light of the US Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs.
The CNY is undervalued and highly competitive. This gives China room to let the currency appreciate while remaining an export-driven powerhouse, gradually shifting from export intensity toward stronger domestic consumption. This achieves two objectives. First, it narrows the capital account deficit and strengthens the CNY’s role as a global anchor. Second, it enhances Beijing’s geopolitical autonomy by reducing reliance on foreign final demand.
China is providing limited stimulus, promoting tech and trade, and maintaining a tariff truce with the US in 2026. Structural flaws and great power struggle continue to cast dark clouds over the long run.
