The forces that have recently propelled aluminum prices will remain supportive over the near term. However, beyond the coming months, aluminum prices will retreat as bearish cyclical pressures overwhelm over the course of 2026.
Maintain a defensive commodity allocation as China’s growth pulse remains weak and export strength proves misleading. China’s November hard data were unequivocally sluggish. Fixed asset investment fell 2.6% y/y, retail sales slowed…
This year, we once again present our 2026 outlook as a retrospective from the future – a future in which the AI boom turned to bust.Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Wednesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30…
Maintain a defensive commodity stance as China’s export strength reflects distortions, not a global trade upturn. Chinese November exports beat estimates, rising 5.9% y/y in USD terms (5.7% in CNY), while imports rose less than 2%.…
Expect CNY appreciation toward 6.5-6.8 over the next 12 months as structural supports outweigh near-term FX management. China set a significantly weaker-than-expected fixing, its largest weak-side deviation since February 2022. State…
Stay constructive on onshore Chinese bonds as weak PMIs and deflationary pressures point to further stimulus. China’s PMIs continue to signal sluggish growth with little momentum. The official NBS composite PMI slipped to 49.7 from…
China is increasingly using Hong Kong as a vehicle to manage the RMB and limit currency appreciation. Our Chart of the Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist Developed Market ex-US. Mathieu shows that, despite narratives of…
China’s economy is weakening across the board as global risk-off hits equities. With housing conditions worsening and exports contracting—a perfect storm—Beijing faces mounting pressure to deliver stronger, housing-focused stimulus…
Our China strategists remain bearish on property sector stocks as cyclical and structural headwinds persist, but see long-term opportunities emerging in China’s shift toward a “new housing market.” Home sales and prices have yet to…