Labor Market

Europe’s near-term outlook remains clouded by uncertainty, even after the tariff reprieve. Our latest update breaks down why the risks to growth, profits, and financial conditions are still skewed to the downside — with Sweden standing out as a key bellwether.

The combination of dollar weakness and rising US yields suggests global investors are questioning the safe-haven status of US Treasuries.

Trump’s tariff shock will push Europe into recession — but it’s also triggering a powerful integration response. In this report, we lay out the tactical case for staying defensive and the structural case for going long European assets when the dust settles.

The stimulus measures driving the post-COVID expansion were beginning to wane after five years and pointing the economy in the direction of an organically occurring recession. Now that DOGE and the multi-front trade war have sped up the timetable, we reiterate our risk-off recommendations.

The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession. 

With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position accordingly.

This report looks at investment implications, for Norwegian assets, given the recent meeting, from the Norges Bank.