Insights

UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon? ...

The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio significantly underperformed in December, returning -5.4%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned -2.8%. Through the final quarter of 2024, USHQ also underperformed vs. benchmark, returning just 0.26%. Though disappointing, with BCA’s house view still expecting a...

Thoughts on the increase in bond yields and this morning’s employment data....

In this Special Report, BCA’s Chief Geopolitical/US Political Strategist Matt Gertken discusses the top five “Black Swan” risks for 2025, from Trump to China....

Stocks have climbed the wall of worry and we are about to see what is on the other side (it won’t be pretty). We will be using our MacroQuant model to determine when to go maximally underweight equities....

In this week’s report, we look at the likely trend for bonds yields and the dollar in the coming months....

Every year we highlight five low-odds scenarios that would have a major impact on global financial markets if they happened. This year we contemplate a total reversal of Chinese policy, a US-Iran nuclear deal, a breakdown of NATO, US military action across the Americas, and an internationally coordi...

In this week’s report, we present our key takeaways from China's two notable adjustments recently implemented: an upward revision to its 2023 GDP and the reduction of the USD weighting in the RMB Exchange Rate Index....

It is rare for BCA Research strategists to be at the literal scene of macro calamities. The denizens of our GeoMacro team – including yours truly – live within the mandatory evacuation zones of the now increasingly on fire Los Angeles. Contrary to the conventional view, this does not make for a sobe...

US bond yields will move higher, unleashing a storm in global financial markets. In the US, rising corporate bond yields will produce a selloff in share prices. In Mainstream EM, rising domestic and USD bond yields will weigh on share prices....