Insights

This month, our Here, There, And Everywhere Chartpack summarizes our main thesis for 2025: the three main narratives driving markets today – fiscal profligacy, trade war, and geopolitical conflict – will peak at some point in 2025....

Our Geopolitical Strategy team published their annual outlook, and see three trends shaping 2025.    First, Congress is expected to pass tax cuts by the end of 2025, providing a fiscal thrust of 0.9% of GDP in 2026. This stimulus will likely embolden Trump to impose tariffs on ma...

Four years after the pandemic, it feels like there has not been enough self-reflection of that fascinating period in history. One lesson for the world of finance continues to go ignored. ...

Spain has outperformed most developed markets since 2022 – real economic output and risk assets alike. Can it last? ...

The extraordinary fall of Bashar al-Assad has taken mere days. The Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - made up of the remnants of Al Qaeda (!) - has taken effective control of the country. What are the implications for global investors?...

The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio has performed mostly on par versus its SPY benchmark YTD. However, USHQ still exhibits lower drawdown and volatility versus the SPY. Heading into year end, we are confident that USHQ's performance will remain intact, with out-performance on a risk adjusted basis ...

Updated views on trends in labor supply and demand in light of this morning’s employment report. ...

I have been generally sceptical of the reflationary aspects of the so-called Trump trade. If Trump's first term is any guide, lower tax rates will have little impact on business spending while higher tariffs are unlikely to trigger much reshoring of manufacturing activity.Meanwhile, rising debt-serv...

This report reviews our FX and Fixed Income trades over the last year. We look forward to sharing our thoughts for 2025 next week. ...