Insights

Our US Equity strategists prepared a Post-Election US Equity Cheat Sheet. Here are highlights of their recommended positioning for a US equity portfolio in a Red Sweep scenario.  Our US Equity strategists prepared a Post-Election US Equity Cheat Sheet. Here are highlights of their recommen...

Although foreseen by our US & Geopolitical strategists, a “Red Sweep” now makes the macro environment more volatile. After convening for our BCA Live & Unfiltered meeting, we offer three main takeaways.  First, 2024 is not 2016. To begin with, a Trump victory is less of a surprise....

The most likely outcomes for the US elections are a “Red Sweep” and a “Blue Gridlock.” The following is a brief discussion of likely policies associated with each election outcome. We also present a post-election US Equities Cheat Sheet, in which we summarize winning trades for each scenario over th...

Over the next few months, Japan’s new government will ease fiscal policy, which will improve domestic demand on the margin. Monetary policy may tighten further in the short run but not too much over the long run. The geopolitical setting drives Japan into accommodative economic policy. ...

The Election Day is finally upon us. No, there is no final “silver bullet” forecast contained in this email. Just our long-term forecast of how the election will, no matter who wins, impact the markets. ...

Turkey has a path toward sustained disinflation. But that will require tight macro policies for an extended period. The question is, will the authorities tolerate the consequent growth slowdown, even a recession, and surging unemployment, as the necessary cost to break the back of inflation? ...

This week, we are sending you a sector chart pack. In the front section of this publication, we briefly review October's performance and then switch our attention to the earnings season and outlook for the Magnificent Seven. ...

The October global manufacturing PMI printed at 49.4, up from 48.7 in September but still in contractionary territory. While output stabilized at 50.1, new orders (48.8) and new export orders (48.3) remain in contraction, as is the case for the new orders-to-inventories spread. This rebound is ...

A reaction to this morning’s employment report and a preview of the potential bond market implications of next week’s US election and FOMC meeting. ...

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning point in China as the government unrolls stimulus measures. This Caixin rebound is not that turnin...