Insights

Middle-aged households have lagged youngish and older households since the pandemic and the 40-to-54 cohort is worse off than it was at the end of 2019. The fragmenting of the seemingly monolithic US consumer widens the path to a recession and we reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendati...

Trump may be slightly favored for the White House but the US election is still extremely close. Odds of a contested or contingent election are rising, which should cause stock market volatility. A Republican sweep should cause more volatility. Democratic gridlock is next most likely but benign for s...

Upgrade Auto & Components Industry Group from an underweight to an overweight as it is dominated by Tesla, whose outlook has brightened. ...

In this report, we discuss why we are lifting our US recession probability from 60% to 65% and explain why China’s latest stimulus announcements are welcome, but probably are “too little, too late.” ...

In this Insight, we evaluate if there is more juice in our macro bet of being long June 2025 CORRA versus SOFR futures, and correspondingly, being short the CAD, for investors with a 1-3 month horizon....

A Donald Trump victory would send bond yields higher during the next few weeks, but yields will fall in 2025 no matter the election outcome. ...

The biggest risk to the equity bull market is not a US recession. The biggest risk is the end of the deeply negative real rates in Japan versus the US that have caused the rampant post-2022 inflation in US tech stock valuations. We go through the investment implications. Plus: bond prices have furth...

As the odds of a Trump victory increase, there are indications that the “Trump trade” has commenced in global financial markets, with negative short-term implications for EM. In short, the US dollar will strengthen, and US bond yields will rise in the lead-up to and after the election if Trump wins....

The semiconductor industry has decoupled: Demand for AI and advanced chips is booming, while the outlook for legacy and non-AI semiconductors is downbeat. We upgrade the US semiconductors to overweight on a tactical investment horizon as Nvidia’s good fortunes will drive the performance of the entir...

This Insight looks at the likely direction of bond yields and the dollar, from the lens of money velocity....