Insights

China's steel sector is behind on its environmental targets. This shortfall reflects EAF production challenges facing Chinese steelmakers. Over the near term, a reduction in steel produced by high-carbon emitting blast furnaces is the most realistic path for China to approach its 2025 green ste...

This week, we cover the main questions we fielded during our latest client trip in Europe. Among the many topics broached are Europe’s recession odds, the impact of China’s stimulus, and the outlook for European markets. ...

In this Insight, we assess whether investors should expect fiscal turbulence in the UK, that will drive UK yields higher and the pound lower....

Whenever I present a skeptical view about the strength of the US labor market, I am often reminded that layoffs remain very low. ...

It is too early to say that the US labor market has turned the corner. We assign a 60% chance that the US will enter a recession over the next 12 months, with the downturn likely to begin in the first half of 2025. Accordingly, investors should underweight equities. ...

We give our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and (lack of) market reaction. We also close our short position in January 2025 fed funds futures. ...

Our Q3 portfolio was defensive, which we believe will be the appropriate stance in the next six-to-twelve months. Data coming out of the US has remained robust which could cause US bond yields to temporarily overshoot. An overshoot in US bond yields will be an opportunity to dial up the portfolio’s ...

We maintain 37% odds of a major recessionary oil shock, 51% odds of minor shocks, and 12% odds of no shocks....

The good news is that we should not fear an imminent US recession. In the absence of a recession though, the Fed cannot cut rates as aggressively as is priced if it wants to keep inflation and inflation expectations anchored at 2 percent. This means that for stock markets the real risk is not a prof...

One of the best things about working at the world’s largest – and oldest! – market research firm is that the “vault” contains research on almost any conceivable topic. As such, I pen this short missive to flag to the GeoMacro clients three reports on the risk of tech regulation – relevant in the con...