Insights

India’s credit impulse has turned negative. Government spending is contracting. The country’s growth will remain subdued; and both drivers of stock prices – profits and multiples – are headed lower at a time when equity valuations are at a record high. ...

Conditions are not yet in place for going long EM stocks in absolute terms and upgrading their allocation from neutral to overweight relative to global equities. The broad trade-weighted US dollar will likely rebound in the next three-to-four months, and global trade will contract. The recent weakne...

Industrial Real Estate prices have risen considerably. The party is not over, but the music is dying down. A repricing is coming. Investors should be gearing up to deploy in 2026—California and Dallas will be prime. ...

I am not one to dismiss the ADP report. Unlike the establishment survey, the ADP numbers are based on hard data. If the ADP is not a reliable guide to the government’s payrolls estimates, maybe that is because the government’s payroll estimates are not a reliable guide to actual payrolls. ...

Absent the multi-decade housing and construction boom, China will be unable to generate the monster credit impulses that it did through 2000-20. Hence, the recent melt-up in Chinese stocks and China plays may last a few weeks more but is unlikely to be a rerun of the 2015 episode either in magnitude...

Western policymakers are pursuing three capital “T” Truths: China is evil, climate change is a major risk, and Russia is… also evil. Pursuing all three priorities at the same time presents a version of the classic “impossible trinity.” ...

October seasonality tends to be negative for stocks in an election year. That is the only thing that has stayed our hand from shifting out of our tactical underweight on US equities, initiated – poorly – in July. But the big macro news from September has not been bearish. The Fed has signaled jumbo ...

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2024. ...

The politically induced selloff in Mexican markets has gone too far. In our view, investor fears about the constitutional changes are largely unwarranted. These reforms will have little to no ramifications for the economy in the foreseeable future, and it is not clear to what extent they can undermi...

Iran has launched a salvo of ballistic missiles towards Israel on October 1 in retaliation for Israeli ground invasion against Lebanon. Thus far, the attack looks to be a bit different from the attack in April, with ballistic missiles making up the bulk of the reported projectiles. This means that t...