Insights

It’s status quo for the SIFI banks, as they don’t see consumer credit performance materially worsening from now-normalized levels and they are not meaningfully exposed to commercial real estate losses. ...

As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets? ...

We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength in these currencies. This report delves into these nuances, and sugg...

The four ASEAN stock markets (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines) have fallen in absolute terms over the past year despite the powerful rally in the developed markets. They have also underperformed their EM benchmark. Our Emerging Markets strategists posit that ASEAN stocks and ...

BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service remained tactically bullish on stocks for most of 2023, but shifted to neutral at the start of 2024, and downgraded stocks to underweight in late June. Its latest report fleshes out the team’s thinking in Q&A format. Our Global Investment co...

Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications. ...

Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025. ...

Brazil’s two macro demons – a rising public debt-to-GDP ratio and inflation – have resurfaced and will worsen over the coming months. Yet, President Lula will pay lip service to fiscal concerns without enacting meaningful cutbacks. In addition, a politicized COPOM will cut rates aggressively next y...

BCA Research has been writing extensively on how consumption fueled by excess savings has been propping up the US economy and prevented a recession in 2023. Now, many estimates of pandemic-era excess savings show that they have run out. While consumption is still robust, with June retail sales easil...

In this Insight, we look into the recent CPI release in Canada, and the possible implications for fixed-income market trades....