Insights

We are positive Private Credit but currently underweight Public BDCs. Today’s market pricing and sentiment in BDCs are excessively optimistic. Long-term investors should await a better entry point. Traders may find an attractive short. This report also peels back the Public BDC onion and presents ov...

The economic schism in the world economy, between the non-US developed economy in recession and the US in strong growth, is unprecedented during our lifetimes. Now the schism will continue in reverse, as the non-US developed economy rebounds while the US fades. There are important implications for r...

The death of the Iranian president reinforces our base case view of Middle Eastern instability and at least minor oil supply shocks. Rapid geopolitical developments in recent weeks are pointing to a new bout of global instability. The US is hobbled by its election. Conflicts with Russia, China, and ...

Q1 Earnings and sales growth were strong, but the devil is in the details: Without the Magnificent Five, earnings growth for the index would have been negative. On a positive note, margins have stabilized, and earnings growth is expected to broaden into yearend. Companies are optimistic about the ec...

We dig into the USD-denominated Emerging Market Sovereign Index to see which credit tiers and countries offer value relative to US Credit. ...

ASEAN stocks and currencies will weaken further as these economies face multiple headwinds. Raising policy rates did not stop a sliding currency in the past, it is unlikely to do so now. ...

This Special Report argues that rate cuts will come sooner in Canada than the US and offers how investors can profit from this. ...

Varying degrees of exposure to certain economic sectors and regions can help explain differences in performance across commodities. This report uncovers some of these differences. In doing so, it presents our framework for analyzing commodities from a business cycle perspective. ...

The stock market will suffer a setback from the weakening labor market and a rebound in US and global policy uncertainty. ...

Our updated views on Treasury yields and Fed policy following this morning’s CPI report. ...