Insights

Peru is entering a benign macro environment: low and falling inflation amid a solid economic recovery. The country’s balance of payments position is robust, which will help the PEN depreciate by less than other EM currencies. The political situation is on shaky ground, but a regime shift will have t...

At the asset class level, the GAA Quant model is overweight equities, underweight bonds, and neutral cash....

Updated views on US Treasury yields and the dollar following today’s FOMC meeting. ...

Wild hopes for US rate cuts got shattered, exactly as we predicted. But given the different incentives that the Fed and ECB now face, the relative pricing between the Fed and the ECB could widen further in the coming months. We discuss the implications for rates, the dollar, and the relative positio...

Central banks are in a dilemma whether to prioritize supporting growth or bringing inflation back to target. This is unlikely to end well. Investors should be defensively positioned. ...

MacroQuant downgraded equities from neutral to underweight on a 1-to-3 month horizon. The model suggests increasing exposure to cash. ...

AI, EVs, and reshoring will lead to a massive surge in demand for electricity. Carbon-free, cheap, baseload nuclear energy stands to greatly benefit from these megatrends going forward....

We are publishing the chart pack I used during my meetings with clients and prospects in Europe last week. It contains charts on China, global macro, and EM asset classes, all of which are mostly self-explanatory and convey my views and analysis. ...

In this Special Report, we introduce our Euro Inflation-Linked Golden Rule – a framework to profitably trade and invest in Euro Area inflation-linked bonds versus nominals. The Rule is currently signaling that nominal government bonds should outperform inflation-linked bonds over the next year as di...

The latest edition of our Big Bank Beige Book suggests the expansion remains intact, though weakness in C’s private-label credit card portfolio could be a harbinger of distress among lower-income consumers. We remain tactically neutral with a bias to turn defensive once clearer signs of a recession ...