Insights

Looking at small caps at the global aggregate level can be misleading. Small caps are cheap and oversold in the DM universe, but expensive and overbought in EM. Watch closely for clarity on the coming recession to upgrade DM small caps to overweight relative to DM large caps. Lighten up small cap ex...

We created a sector selection scorecard based on performance of sectors under various macroeconomic regimes while taking into consideration revisions to expected earnings growth and valuations in a historical context. Our total sector selection scorecard suggests overweighting defensives such as Uti...

The global memory chip market will improve in 2024, characterized by a further rebound in memory chip prices and decent demand growth. Artificial intelligence (AI) memory and a replacement cycle of servers, smartphones, and PCs will propel memory chip shipment. We remain overweight South Korean equi...

The German economy has lagged that of Europe. This trend will continue, but does it mean German equities will underperform further? ...

China will continue to suffer from a “triple crisis”. Though there could be a tactical bounce, cyclically we still recommend underweighting Chinese equities. ...

Chinese A-shares will probably begin forming a volatile bottom. The basis is that authorities will likely throw the kitchen sink at the onshore market in an attempt to stabilize share prices. The same is not true for offshore listed stocks. Hong Kong-traded Chinese share prices will likely continue ...

This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month. ...

Easier financial conditions, rising home prices, rebounding consumer sentiment, and a stabilization in manufacturing activity all augur well for near-term US growth prospects. An unsustainably low savings rate is a key risk to the US economic outlook. Our revised forecast is centered on a recession ...

We are upgrading Europe Private Equity, predominantly driven by Buyouts, from underweight to neutral. Our outlook towards Global Buyouts is improving, with Europe benefiting from enhanced credit availability and an earlier recession. Non-domestic investors may also be advantaged by an appreciation i...

Supply and demand shocks in markets critical to the renewable-energy and defense industries will continue to play havoc with prices, which will negatively impact capex. In the short run, this benefits China given its already-dominant position in these markets. Longer term, investors already are prov...