Insights

The soft-landing narrative has won, but is too much of a good thing now expected by investors? ...

We share the edited transcript of a webinar we participated in discussing global trade, trade wars and tariffs, as well as de-risking strategies. ...

In this note, we preview the Q4-2023 earnings season and share what we will be watching. ...

In this brief Insight we examine the expanding Middle East conflict and update the situation in the Taiwan Strait on the eve of elections. The Houthis are a distraction and China is not likely to invade Taiwan in the near term, but both situations support our overweight of US equities relative to gl...

The expectation that China is best placed to win the global EV race presumes the persistence of the status quo. Reality, however, may differ as the sector looks set to be hit by a range of changes. If nonlinearity were to emerge in the global auto sector, as it often does, then the EV transition cou...

In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago. ...

We update our inflation forecast following this morning’s CPI report. ...

The combined US credit impulse and fiscal thrust indicator will likely relapse in 2024, heralding growth weakness. Stalling US sales volume and falling inflation, combined with sticky labor costs, will herald a non-trivial profit margin compression. The recent increase in Asian exports will likely p...

Increasing gray-zone confrontations and another round of tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade are not being reflected in commodity prices. This is keeping inflationary pressures emanating from the real economy subdued. That said, inflation risks are increasing as threats to commodity supplies and...

The Fed faces a dilemma. Cut rates early to avoid a recession, but at the risk of not slaying wage inflation. Or, not cut rates early to ensure that wage inflation is slayed, but at the risk of a downturn. Faced with such a dilemma, the lesser evil is to slay wage inflation even at the risk of a dow...