Insights

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond. ...

Despite higher oil prices, Colombian risk assets will underperform their EM peers in the months ahead. The domestic economy is evolving from stagflation into recession, and fiscal and political risks will raise the risk premium of Colombian assets. Take profits on the yield curve inversion trade and...

Magnificent Seven have outperformed the market by 42.3% YTD, but over the past few weeks, their rally has stalled. This short insight explores the reasons why and ultimately concludes that the pull back is justified and likely has more to go. ...

China’s oil demand growth will moderate to a still robust 4%-6% in the next six-to-nine months. We recommend that investors in China’s onshore and offshore stock indexes overweight energy producers. ...

Bulls and bears have capitulated, and the majority of the clients surveyed expect a rangebound market in the near term. Our fair value PE NTM indicates that the S&P 500 is only modestly overvalued. The continued outperformance of the Magnificent Seven faces multiple hurdles. Meanwhile, fiscal ...

European stocks and the euro continue to weaken; soon, they will test the bottom of their recent trading range. Which sectors can protect investors against this downdraft? ...

US fiscal, monetary, and foreign policies are unlikely to deliver any dovish surprises for investors in Q4, due to the impending government shutdown, persistent inflation, and instability among OPEC+ and China. ...

Emergency pandemic fiscal and monetary policy measures buffered households and nonfinancial corporate businesses in ways that have acted to lengthen the lags between monetary policy changes and their effect on the economy. We believe, however, the extended lags are merely delaying the recession, not...

The global downturn will be shallower than it was in 2008 and in 2020 but will last for longer. The primary reason for a more prolonged downturn is that policymakers in the US, Europe, and China will be reluctant to proactively and aggressively stimulate. The combination of rising oil prices, an app...

We continue to expect Brent crude to trade just above $101/bbl in 4Q23, and to average $118/bbl in 2024. Higher volatility looms. We expect Russia will cut oil production next year as part of a concerted effort to undermine Biden’s re-election. Oil-demand volatility is set to rise in response to div...