Insights

This report reviews our key calls for major currencies, in light of recent data releases. ...

Peruvian financial markets will outperform their EM peers given the country’s clear macroeconomic and political visibility. Low and plummeting inflation, a decelerating economy and a lack of economic excesses will allow the central bank to cut rates in the coming months and achieve a soft landing. A...

A look at how US bond yields responded to yesterday’s strong economic data and this morning’s soft inflation print. ...

We build a four-stage business cycle framework based on economic growth and capacity utilization, and then analyze historical returns for most major asset allocation decisions for each stage. Given that we are in the early recession stage (negative growth coupled and an overheated economy), our fram...

In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond. ...

In Section I, we reiterate why a soft economic landing remains improbable in the US. Some reasonable estimates of the level of excess savings point to their depletion in a year’s time, but other estimates indicate a much earlier end point. We interpret this evidence, as well as other indicators, as ...

The combination of a global manufacturing recession and tight/tightening policy is raising a red flag for global non-TMT stocks. In China, households are entering a liquidity trap, and deflationary pressures are heightening. Authorities need to reduce interest rates considerably and allow the curren...

China’s economic and diplomatic interests in the GCC region will expand, as will its military presence. Whether or not this stabilizes the region is yet to be determined, particularly if tensions in the South China Sea and other international waters traversed by both the US and China escalate. Under...

The market does not grasp the implied depths of recessions that will be needed to prevent inflation expectations from un-anchoring. Among the major economies, the most vulnerable to a deep recession is the UK. We explain why, and some investment implications. Plus: the yen is a rebound candidate, wh...