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Australia Versus Canada: Who Will Pivot First?

In this Strategy Insight, we assess the monetary policy path for Australia and Canada in 2024 and we discuss how to profit from a growing divergence between the two economies.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Robert Timper
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These Labor Market Indicators Are Pointing To A Hard Landing

Investors have taken comfort in the fact that unemployment has remained low in the major economies. But underneath the surface, there are clear signs that labor demand is weakening. The clock keeps ticking towards our H2 2024 recession call. After being bullish on risk assets last year, we are slowly turning more defensive.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Are Inflationary Pressures Picking Up In Canada?
Canadian government bond yields jumped on Tuesday, with the 10-year yield rising by nearly 14 basis points. While most other major DM government bonds also sold off, the move in Canadian yields was relatively more pronounced. Both global and domestic forces…
Daily Insights
Economic Uncertainty Is Top Concern Among Canadian Businesses
Canada’s Business Outlook Survey (BOS) indicator increased slightly in Q4, suggesting that sentiment stabilized at the end of 2023. In particular, easing inflationary pressures amid weaker demand and greater competition drove the 0.3-point uptick. Notably,…
Daily Insights
Falling Inflation Supports End Of RBA Hikes
Australian CPI inflation fell from 4.9% y/y to a 22-month low of 4.3% y/y in November – slightly below expectations of 4.4%. Underlying measures of core inflation also indicate that price pressures eased in November. The rate of growth in CPI excluding…
Daily Insights
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2024 Key Views: Returning To Normal
Special Report

In this, our final report of the year, we present our main global fixed income investment themes and recommendations for 2024.

Global Fixed Income Strategy
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The Fed In 2024
Special Report

Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.

The Bank Credit Analyst by Ryan Swift
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The Fed In 2024
Special Report

Our outlook for the Fed’s interest rate and balance sheet policies in 2024.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
The Pivot To Rate Cuts: Context Matters
Multiple major DM central banks are scheduled to decide on monetary policy this week. The US Fed will meet on Wednesday, followed by the ECB, BoE, and Norges Bank on Thursday. It comes after the BoC and RBA both opted to keep rates unchanged last week. …
Daily Insights
The BoC Stands Pat
The BoC kept its policy rate steady at 5% for the fourth consecutive meeting on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In its press release, the BoC maintained that it is ready to keep hiking if deemed necessary. That said, the BoC noted that inflationary…
Daily Insights

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