Consumer
The Caixin services and composite PMIs were broadly unchanged in April. The services PMI decreased from 52.7 to 52.5, in line with expectations, while the composite PMI increased from 52.7 to 52.8. Details underscored positive dynamics. New business growth…
The Federal Reserve has a target inflation of 2%. But what level of inflation does the American public actually prefer? A recent NBER paper titled “Inflation Preferences” by Afrouzi, Dietrich, Myrseth, Priftis, and Schoenle surveyed one thousand…
The ISM Services PMI largely disappointed in April. The headline index fell to 49.4 from 51.4, below expectations of a faster pace of growth. April’s contraction ends a streak of 15 consecutive months of services-sector expansion. Two alternative…
Investors should prepare for economic data to weaken even as policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk skyrocket ahead of the US election.
The Conference Board’s gauge of consumer confidence largely disappointed in April. 3.9- and 7.6-point decreases in the Present Situation and Expectations subcomponents, respectively, drove the overall index to a 22-month low of 97.0 in April. This third…
The house price index from the Federal Housing Finance Agency grew by 1.2% in February, improving from a decline of 0.1% previously, and above expectations of 0.1%. Meanwhile the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose by 7.3% on a year-on-year basis in…
The latest edition of our Big Bank Beige Book suggests the expansion remains intact, though weakness in C’s private-label credit card portfolio could be a harbinger of distress among lower-income consumers. We remain tactically neutral with a bias to turn defensive once clearer signs of a recession emerge.
Investors anticipate a record growth gap between the US and the Eurozone in 2024. Does this skewed expectation create market opportunities?
Our latest views on the recent increase in Treasury yields and some key things to watch at next week’s FOMC meeting.
Throughout this cycle, US housing has defied expectations. Overall home prices have never fallen since the pandemic, even as the Fed has conducted its second most aggressive tightening campaign in history. Today, home price growth remains robust, running at…