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Corporate

Canada’s Policy Rate Is Not Sufficiently Restrictive
Recent economic data reveal that Canadian household conditions remain resilient. Retail sales surprised to the upside in April. The 1.1% m/m increase follows two consecutive monthly declines and beat expectations of a 0.4% m/m rise. Similarly, the Bank of…
Daily Insights
Real Earnings Growth Across Various Inflation Regimes
High levels of inflation distort cross-period comparisons of both earnings and sales and mask real earnings growth rates. Last year is a case in point: While in nominal terms, earnings (including Energy) have been contracting for only two quarters, in real…
Daily Insights
Will The Equity Rally Broaden?
As we’ve highlighted in recent Insights, the S&P 500’s year-to-date rally has been concentrated among a few mega cap stocks. In particular, companies that benefit from the AI craze have driven the gains. This dynamic is also reflected in the sector…
Daily Insights
Potential Drivers Of An Earnings Rebound
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the earnings contraction is far from over. However, rising productivity, falling costs, or a new restocking cycle could help. Earnings and sales growth beat analyst expectations in Q1-23, yet in real…
Daily Insights
US Q1 GDP Revised Up, GDI Contracts
US economic data were mixed on Thursday. On the positive side, Q1 real GDP growth was revised up to 1.3% from the preliminary estimate of 1.1%. In particular, consumption was revised higher by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8% following a 1% increase in Q4…
Daily Insights
American Consumers Are Not Overindebted
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, there are no credit obstacles preventing households from sustaining their consumption growth rate at a level that will keep the recession at bay for the rest of the year. Much has been made of…
Daily Insights
Greedflation: Fad, Fact Or Fiction?
Special Report

Financial commentators, politicians and policymakers have increasingly been blaming stubbornly high inflation on companies pursuing aggressive pricing strategies to boost earnings and margins. In this Special Report, we investigate the concept of “greedflation” – companies persistently raising prices faster than costs are increasing to pad profit margins - and see if the associated conclusions about corporate pricing power and inflation are borne out by the data in the US, euro area and UK.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, US Bond Strategy, US Political Strategy by Ryan Swift, Matt Gertken
High Yield Is Currently Also Very High Risk
For long-term investors, high-yield bonds are an attractive asset class. They behave like low-volatility equities: In the US, they have a 70-80% correlation with equities, but with a beta of only around one-third. The Sharpe ratio of US high-yield bonds over…
Daily Insights
Indian Stocks: Is It Time To Upgrade?

Indian EPS growth is set for major disappointments vis-à-vis the lofty expectations. Weak domestic demand amid tight fiscal and monetary policy entails more downside in stock prices. Stay underweight.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
A Primer On China’s Local Government Debt
Special Report

Government financing vehicles (LGFVs) are a key component of China’s credit system. LGFV bonds make up a 40% share of the onshore corporate bond market, and loans to LGFVs make up 20% of total loans. LGFV debt-servicing capacity is very weak. What are the ramifications of all of these for Chinese economic growth and financial markets?

China Investment Strategy by Qingyun Xu, Arthur Budaghyan

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics