Corporate Bonds

The Treasury curve will bear-flatten between now and a likely December rate hike. Beyond December, our strategy will depend on how the dollar responds to increased rate hike expectations. For now, maintain below benchmark duration and favor convexity risk over credit risk.

With recent comments strongly hinting that the Fed is on track for a rate hike in December, the dy-namics of the Fed Policy Loop make spread product appear extremely vulnerable.

The euro area's NPL problem is unlikely to be solved quickly, constraining bank profitability and the capacity to lend. There are three important repercussions for investors.

The tailwind of better-than-expected global growth and highly supportive monetary policy has the potential to push global spread product into overshoot territory.

The combination of strengthening global growth and more accommodative monetary policy means that spread product can continue to outperform in the coming months. Despite lingering concerns about credit quality in the corporate sector, we recommend moderately increasing exposure to high-quality spread product.

Eventually the easing of financial conditions will strengthen the Fed's resolve to lift rates. Rate hike probabilities will rise and risk assets will struggle to cope with higher Treasury yields.

The odds of an inflation "mini-scare" are rising, although deflationary tail risks from abroad cannot be dismissed.

A collection of 10 important charts to monitor closely through the summer months.

The 35-year bond bull market is coming to an end and the downward sloping trend channel for yields is changing to flat. Asset allocators should trim duration and fixed income exposure.

The 35-year bond bull market is coming to an end and the downward sloping trend channel for yields is changing to flat. Asset allocators should trim duration and fixed income exposure.