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Currencies

Riksbank: A Dangerous Wait-And-See Approach
The Riksbank’s cautious stance sets up a dovish pivot, reinforcing our long Swedish bonds view and SEK fade vs. USD. The central bank held rates at 2.25% for the second time this year, with Governor Thedéen describing policy as well-balanced despite rising…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
A BoE Hawkish Cut
The Bank of England’s hawkish cut reinforces our Gilts overweight and tactical short GBP view as global headwinds persist. The BoE lowered rates by 25 bps to 4.25% as expected, but the MPC vote was more split than expected. Five members were in favor, two…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Asian Currencies: A Paradigm Shift?

Taiwan, Singapore, and Korea's currencies might appreciate versus the USD, driven by capital repatriation from domestic private investors away from the US. This thesis is less pertinent to India, Indonesia, and the Philippines because they have large net foreign portfolio liabilities. Malaysia and Thailand fall in the middle, while China is an exception. Investors should play intensifying deflationary pressures in Asia by betting on lower interest rates in the region.

Emerging Markets Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Bitcoin Enters The Allocation Debate
Our Global Asset Allocation strategists recommend staying defensively positioned. They remain underweight equities and the US specifically, while maintaining an overweight in fixed income yet downgrading duration to neutral. Uncertainty around US governance…
Daily Insights
Taiwan Dollar: The Next Phase Of Dollar Diversification
The TWD’s surge reflects a regime shift in global capital flows that supports EM Asia government bonds. Alongside other Asian currencies, the TWD has rallied sharply against the USD since late last week. While the first wave of dollar weakness mainly…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Mexico: An EM Star Amid A Tariff War
Mexico will be one of the biggest winners of the global trade war, creating a structural tailwind for its assets. Mexican risk assets and the peso are uniquely positioned to outperform while EM assets suffer as global growth slumps. First, Mexico’s…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
BoJ Stays Dovish as Japan’s Inflation Stands Apart
The Bank of Japan’s dovish hold does not contradict BCA’s underweight JGBs and long JPY recommendations. The BoJ left its policy rate unchanged at 0.5% for a second meeting, but slashed its GDP and inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026. Nevertheless, the…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The BoJ Is Strategically Dovish

This week’s report looks at Japan, with the recent BoJ meeting. While a trade war has injected uncertainty into the Japanese economy, our conviction remains high that JGBs will underperform other government bond markets, and the yen will ultimately rally. That said, JPY is due for a tactical pullback. 

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
MacroQuant Model Update: Stagflationary Brew

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Global Asset Allocation by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li
MacroQuant Model Update: Stagflationary Brew

MacroQuant sees the risks to US growth as being to the downside and the risks to inflation as being to the upside. Such a stagflationary brew justifies an underweight on stocks.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin, Chanhyuck Lee, Allen Li

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