Currencies
August offers an opportunity to review our key views. European growth is turning the corner and inflation is improving, but does it guarantee an imminent breakout in European stocks?
In this insight, we assess the prospect of the Swiss franc over the next six months.
Collapsed complexity, plus the unwinding of favourable base effects and favourable seasonal adjustments to the inflation and jobs numbers, all pose a danger to the Goldilocks market.
Some investors have thrown in the towel on investing in Chinese equities, instead deploying capital in EM ex-China – or at least contemplating doing so. This report examines the merits of investing in EM ex-China stocks and concludes that EM – whether including or excluding China - will continue underperforming DM equities.
History suggests that a “soft landing” is highly unlikely after such an aggressive Fed tightening cycle. The rally could continue for a little longer but, on the 12-month horizon, market risks are very skewed to the downside.