Developed Countries
Real yields remain near 2%, but structural asymmetries justify a duration overweight as inflation expectations stay anchored. US 10-year yields have been volatile, testing 4.80% in January and dropping below 4.0% after April’s Liberation Day. Meanwhile,…
Japan’s improving growth momentum and structural inflation shift support an underweight in JGBs and long JPY positioning. The June Eco Watchers Survey was broadly in line with expectations, with current conditions ticking up to 45.0 and expectations modestly…
The RBA’s surprise hold reinforces a slower easing path, warranting an underweight on Australian bonds. Markets had priced in a 25 bps cut, but the central bank opted to keep rates at 3.85%. Governor Bullock characterized the decision as a matter of timing,…
BCA’s Private Markets & Alternatives strategists recommend a balanced allocation across Public and Private Infrastructure, with near-term valuation favoring Public. Structural differences in index construction, sector mix, and regional exposure drive…
Markets are pricing a return to a neutral policy stance for the major central banks within the next 12 months. However, recession risks still loom amid slowing growth. We unpack where recession risks are underappreciated and what it means for bond positioning.
Deteriorating macro momentum supports a defensive asset allocation stance as hard data deteriorates. Last week’s ISM Manufacturing and Services PMIs confirmed that growth is slowing and price pressures are easing from a high level. The ISM Manufacturing index…
Labor market cracks reinforce long duration and steepener positioning as growth risks mount. Job market data has looked strong on the surface, but the details of the June employment and JOLTS reports confirm a slowing trend within the “low hiring, low firing”…
Stronger-than-expected June inflation will likely keep the Riksbank on hold in August, despite soft underlying trends. Headline inflation accelerated more than expected to 0.5% m/m (0.8% y/y), while CPI ex-housing rose to 2.9% y/y and core inflation to 3.3%…
Our European Investment strategists upgrade small caps to maximum overweight, citing improving margins, supportive macro trends, and attractive valuations. They expect small caps to continue outperforming large caps over the next 12 to 18 months. With…
Relative growth and inflation trends point to a narrower UST/Bund spread. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, Global Fixed Income Strategist. This week, our rates strategists introduced a new US/Euro Area Relative Duration Indicator, designed to…