Developed Countries
Japan’s export growth slowed materially in April as shipments to the US, Japan’s largest export destination, fell 1.8% from a year earlier. Japan has yet to make a trade deal with the US. Japanese export growth slowed to 2% from 4% in March, which aligns…
UK inflation surprised to the upside in April. Headline inflation rose to a 15-month high of 3.5%, from 2.6% the month before. Core inflation also surprised above estimates, printing 3.8% vs. 3.4% in March. Services inflation climbed to 5.4% from 4.7%. Higher…
Although Canada’s headline CPI slowed to 1.7% y/y from 2.3% on Tuesday, most measures of underlying inflation surprised to the upside, thus raising the likelihood that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will stay put at its next meeting in three weeks. The…
The European bond market is pricing in a more optimistic outlook. The BTP-Bund spreads have narrowed 30bps since April 9 and are now within reach of their pre-Ukraine war level. BCA’s European strategists do not share this optimism, at least not in the…
Deteriorating US consumer sentiment and surging inflation expectations add to growth concerns and reinforce our long-duration bond stance. The preliminary May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed expectations, falling to 50.8 from 52.2. The…
Weak April housing data and deteriorating builder sentiment reinforce our defensive stance, as recession risks remain underpriced. Housing starts rose at a 1.6% m/m annualized rate, missing expectations. Similarly, building permits, a leading indicator of…
A strong Australian labor market is limiting the scope for RBA easing, reinforcing our underweight on Australian government bonds. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, strategist in our Global Fixed Income Strategy team. The April NAB business…
April retail sales slowed, but signs of resilience in discretionary spending and labor data suggest US consumers are holding up. Headline retail sales rose 0.1% m/m, above expectations but decelerating from the upwardly revised 1.7% March gain. Core sales…
The US-China trade truce lifted short-term manufacturing sentiment in May, but margin pressures persist, reinforcing the case for defensive, domestic-focused equity positioning. The Empire and Philly Fed regional manufacturing surveys delivered a split signal…
Expect broad-based dovish surprises from major central banks, and stay overweight UK and euro area government bonds. Our Global Fixed Income, European, and FX strategists published a joint update of BCA’s Central Bank Monitors. They expect the Bank of…