Developed Countries
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell from 102.2 to 100.2 in November, marking a second consecutive month of decline following a brief improvement in Q3. Both the Present Situation and Expectations sub-indices declined from downwardly revised…
US financial conditions have recently eased in the US economy as equity prices climbed and the dollar weakened. While this latest move is a positive development for US economic activity, its durability is questionable. More importantly from a cyclical…
The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and Italian risk will stay high on energy constraints.
This week we present six key investment views for 2023.
Australia’s retail sales figures were a big miss. They contracted in October for the first time this year, falling by 0.2% m/m and disappointing expectations they would continue to grow close to September’s 0.6% m/m pace. Department stores (consumer…
The US October CPI report showed a broad-based moderation of inflationary pressures, suggesting that price pressures have likely peaked and will continue to ease going forward. A wage-price spiral -- whereby workers demand higher wages to compensate for…
The S&P 500 Industrials sector is among the top performers in the recent equity rally, gaining 17% since October 12. On a year-to-date basis, the sector’s 6.2% decline is more muted than the benchmark’s 16.8% drop. Industrial stocks’ relative…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that in the first half of 2023, weak Chinese growth will be the most important headwind facing European asset prices and currencies. Ever since it joined the WTO in 2001, China has become a…
European asset prices have rebounded sharply since September. Can this trend survive in the face of a weak Chinese economy where deflation prevails?
Crypto broker FTX’s bankruptcy does not pose a systemic threat to markets. It did reveal something deeply unflattering about excess liquidity, however, and suggests that other private investments may come a cropper.