Developed Countries
This week’s report takes a look at risk-adjusted return opportunities in US spread product.
On Monday, UK Gilts rallied on news that former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak is the new leader of the Conservative Party. The 10-year yield fell by 31bps while the 2-year yield ended the day 24bps lower – levels that prevailed prior to the…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service the biggest banks’ commentary validates their view that a recession has not yet begun and will not begin before late 2023. Except at the lowest end of the income and wealth distributions, consumers…
The midterm election will bring some relief from US policy uncertainty. But this relief will be short-lived unless Republicans win the Senate, which is still too close to call. Global policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk will remain high.
On their third quarter earnings calls, the largest banks indicated that their household and business customers remain in surprisingly robust shape. We interpret their observations as supporting our constructive near-term take on the economy and financial markets.
Retail sales in Canada grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in August, following a 2.2% contraction in the prior month. In particular, food & beverage store sales led the increase, expanding 2.4%. Most encouragingly, sales in volume terms rose by…
The October Fed Beige Book signaled a “modest” rise in economic growth, an improvement from the previous releases’ “unchanged” economic conditions. Notably, travel and tourism rose strongly and manufacturing activity either held steady or expanded in most of…
The October flash release of the European Commission’s Eurozone consumer confidence suggests that household sentiment remains exceptionally weak. Although the index unexpectedly ticked up from -28.8 to -27.6, it remains near September’s record low – beneath…
The Aussie dollar has been among the worst performing G10 currencies in recent weeks. It has weakened by 2.1% since the DXY’s most recent high on September 28. This latest bout of weakness reflects the impact of the RBA’s smaller-than-anticipated rate hike…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy & Global Fixed Income Strategy services conclude that on its own, the Fed’s shrinking balance sheet is not likely to lead to an inadvertent “overtightening” in monetary policy. The team revisits the…